Uncertainty Management in Nascent Ecosystems: a Process Data Analysis of The Evtol Case Study Thesis language: English

Innovation ecosystem (IE) literature is undergoing vigorous growth (Shiplov and Gawer, 2020). IE literature is vast and portrays recent new structures of economic relations. Literature has matured in recent years and considers ecosystems an actionable new structure of economic relationships that requires specific management. IE is a fertile field for the emergence of uncertainties of different natures and different levels because they grow in a non-linear way, with the development trajectories being emergent rather than strictly controlled. The literature has already shown the source of several different types of uncertainty at the project and organizational level (Pich et al., 2002; Rice et al., 2008; Ross et al., 2018; Huchzermeler and Loch, 2001; Huber et al., 1975), but studies of uncertainty management at the ecosystem level are relatively scarce. We know much less about how emerging ecosystems deal with uncertainty. Based on this research gap, this research presents an analytical framework of uncertainties that affect innovation ecosystems' emergence. To do that, we conducted a qualitative multiple case studies methodological approach in one aircraft-related global innovation ecosystem. Based on 164 interviews and 506 technical reports andwhite papers, we identified an emerging ecosystem based on multiple criteria, mapped and explained all its components according to ecosystem theory. We found 262 main events in a 7-year global trajectory evolution of the ecosystem and grouped them into 6 phases of the ecosystem. We inductively identified, named, and ranked 45 uncertainties and 50 strategies that emerged from the data. Finally, we analyzed the relationship between uncertainties and strategies employed by decision-makers, identifying patterns of uncertainty management and showing a visual map explaining the coevolution during the IE growth trajectory. We finish this study by presenting a set of propositions. This study contributes to the emergence of the innovation ecosystem as a structured research field. This study also contributes to public policymakers by depicting elements that inhibit innovation ecosystem emergence. Based on these findings, practitioners may strategize paths for better dealing with situations of different natures in these contexts.